Trend Analysis and ARIMA Models for Water Quality Parameters of Brahmani River, Odisha, India

Statistical trend analysis and time-series prediction model are widely used in water quality regulation. Using the Mann-Kendall test, was performed on monthly time series. The findings revealed that only potential Hydrogen (pH) Total Coliforms (TC) showed meaningful trends. Future values for parameters which affect have been predicted using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. R-square, root mean square error, absolute maximum percentage normalised Bayesian information criteria, Ljung-Box were to validate It has found predictive models (pH), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Biochemical Demand (BOD), useful at 95% confidence limits. Also, results pH will be range of 7.2 7.5 series similar original series, providing a perfect fit. DO (mg/l) ranges from 7.8 12.3 mg/l. BOD fluctuates continuously between 1.2 1.3 TC (MPN/100ml) show reducing trend. study is deteriorating based needs managerial actions.